👋👋 Good morning real estate watchers! Today, we will talk about SpaceX finally launching Starship without exploding, and suddenly, everyone's buying property in South Texas. Meanwhile, Cracker Barrel redesigned its restaurants, and customers are furious because, apparently, Americans will tolerate a billionaire turning rockets into expensive confetti, but God forbid you touch the rustic décor at their favorite highway biscuit dispensary.
But first, here’s what we’ve been paying attention to this week…
1️⃣ Small Deals, Big Gains: Commercial property transactions under $25M jumped 3.5% in early 2025 compared to last year, partly powered by stronger activity in multifamily and industrial sectors. (Globe St)
2️⃣ No Parking More Building: Chicago’s City Council voted unanimously to eliminate parking minimums near transit lines, freeing apartment developers from the costly requirement of building parking garages. The move, part of a growing national trend, is designed to cut construction costs, boost housing supply, and make density near trains and buses more affordable. (Bloomberg)
3️⃣ Refinancing Down: Mortgage purchase applications posted their strongest numbers in a month. But a slight uptick in rates cooled refinance demand, pulling overall mortgage applications down 0.5% for the week ending August 22. (HW)
4️⃣ Affordable(ish): In July, about 439,000 homes were affordable to a median-income household—the highest since 2022 and 20% more than last year, thanks to an 18% jump in total inventory. Yet many buyers remain stuck on the sidelines with just 31.7% of listings deemed affordable (down from 53.7% in 2020), and mortgage payments more than doubled in five years. (Zillow)
5️⃣ Avocado Toast Wasn’t the Problem: A new survey found 7 in 10 Gen Z and millennial renters struggle to cover their housing costs, with 41% of young homeowners reporting difficulty. Boomers and Gen Xers fare slightly better, proving that the real budget-buster isn’t brunch but the rent check. (Redfin)
TOP STORY
ROCKET FUEL
As the world’s tallest rocket arced over the Gulf Tuesday night, the tremor that rattled windows from Boca Chica to Brownsville also shook loose a question local agents have been fielding all week: Is South Texas housing about to liftoff, too?
SpaceX’s tenth Starship test (“Flight 10”) checked a string of firsts that matter for turning test flights into regular operations. About half an hour after launch, Starship opened its bay. It deployed eight dummy Starlink satellites (the first in-space payload operation for the program) and briefly relit a Raptor engine, another key step toward orbital refueling and lunar work. “It was the first time we deployed payloads from Starship,” SpaceX’s Amanda Lee said on the company’s broadcast. “This is the second time we’ve relit an engine in space.”
The flight plan called for two splashdowns and delivered them. SpaceX posted, “Splashdown confirmed!” After the ship reached the Indian Ocean, the super-heavy booster hit its mark with a water landing in the Gulf. Reentry scorched a flap and shredded a protective skirt, but the vehicle stayed controllable until its planned termination after splashdown.
The mission matters beyond bragging rights. NASA’s Artemis III—the agency’s next crewed lunar landing—depends on a Starship variant as the Human Landing System. NASA continues to target 2027 for that mission, per the agency’s update this month. The stronger the Starship looks, the sturdier South Texas looks as a gateway for deep-space work.
Even before Flight 10, the economic center of gravity had been shifting. “We are investing billions of dollars in our operations and generating hundreds of millions of dollars of work-force income and taxes,” wrote SpaceX executive Kathryn Lueders in a letter urging support for the new municipality surrounding the launch site—“Gateway to Mars,” as she called it. Voters have since approved that incorporation: the City of Starbase is now official, with county canvass and certification complete.
The company scale is becoming city-scale. As of late April, SpaceX employed 2,796 people at Starbase, according to county meeting materials cited by the San Antonio Express-News, and a new “GigaBay” factory proposal would add at least 500 more jobs and a $506 million investment if it wins state Enterprise Zone status.
And the cash to support growth appears to be there. In June, Elon Musk said SpaceX is on track for about $15.5 billion in 2025 revenue, underscoring how Starlink and the launch business could bankroll more South Texas build-out.
What this means for housing
In the near term, the data show a market loosening but not collapsing—fertile ground for absorption if flight cadence and hiring tick up.
Prices and activity. In July, the median sale price in Brownsville was ~$254,450, up 3.6% year over year, with homes taking a median 81 days to sell, per Redfin. Earlier in the spring, local data showed Brownsville’s March median at $230,000 (-8% YoY) with inventory up to 6.9 months. This is a classic sign of a market catching its breath after tight pandemic years. The shift suggests buyers have time again, and sellers will need pricing precision as demand ramps.
Rents. Zillow’s observed rent index pegs the average Brownsville rent at ~$1,636, up 4.5% in the past year—supportive for investors betting on workforce housing tied to aerospace and port logistics.
Supply pipeline. The city itself is trying to get ahead of demand: Mayor John Cowen says Brownsville is “at the edge of its future,” touting master-planned communities such as Madeira (2,000 total homes across single- and multifamily) and the proposed Estrella (3,400+ homes). A $300 million capital plan and downtown revitalization will keep growth from outrunning infrastructure.
Governance and land use. Starbase’s incorporation means local authorities—now a city commission—can levy taxes, pass ordinances, and coordinate services near the launch site, a shift Cameron County officials confirmed after canvassing the election. For developers and lenders, the change reduces uncertainty about who controls roads, permits, and public safety in the rocket district.
The bigger bet: cadence
For housing, launch cadence is destiny. SpaceX has publicly said it wants Starship flights every few weeks as hardware and FAA reviews allow; the company reiterated after Flight 10 that it hit “every major objective,” including payload deployment and engine relight—mileposts toward routine missions. Routine missions mean routine payrolls.
If those flights stick, expect a familiar pattern: spillover demand from on-site technical staff into Brownsville, Los Fresnos, San Benito, and beyond; investor interest in B-class rentals; and small-to-midsize industrial users chasing the supply chain. If the cadence slips, today’s healthier months of inventory give the region a cushion.
For now, the vibe is equal parts rocket plume and hard hats. SpaceX posted “Splashdown confirmed!” on Tuesday. In the Rio Grande Valley, the follow-on message for real estate may be: “Absorption confirmed—pending flight rate.”