👋👋 Good morning real estate watchers! Today, we are going to do something a little different before we talk about real estate cancel culture. We know you love real estate news, and our friends over at Evernest publish an awesome weekly newsletter called 🪺 The Nest—Your weekly perch for all things real estate. Here is a snippet from this week’s edition…

RENT CONTROL REALITY CHECK

Ever tried squeezing a balloon only to watch it bulge somewhere else? That’s rent regulation in a nutshell: New York’s laws tighten, cap rates pop, and suddenly half the country’s apartment markets spring a leak in valuations and capex.

A sweeping Trepp deep-dive tracks rent-control (and near-cousin “stabilization”) experiments from New York to Portland (both coasts!) and the Twin Cities in between. Headlines: post-2019 reforms sliced New York’s regulated multifamily values by roughly 30%, pushed CMBS delinquency on those assets to 16.4%, and left a quarter of small-landlord units vacant because rents can’t cover variable costs. San Francisco and L.A. show milder but still visible valuation discounts, while St. Paul’s 3% cap stalled new construction from ~1,000 units a year to <300. Contrast that with laissez-faire Minneapolis, where a 12% jump in housing stock kept average rents almost flat (up 1% total) over five years (Read More).

…Now, on to our regular programming. Let’s go!

TOP STORY

NEW CANCEL CULTURE

The “sold” sign outside a tidy three-bedroom in Lake Nona lasted exactly 72 hours. The would-be buyers backed out when their lender re-ran the numbers at a 6.8% mortgage rate, sending the home back to the market and the seller hunting for price cuts. That scene is repeating nationwide, and the stats suggest it’s more than jitters.

One deal in seven goes poof

Some 56,000 purchase agreements, 14.3% of all homes that went under contract, collapsed in April. This is the second-worst April on record after the pandemic shock of 2020. Atlanta topped the rollback list at a cool 20%, trailed by a Florida trio of Orlando (19.4%), Tampa (19.1%), and Miami (18.9%).

Florida actually claims five of the ten worst cancellation metros. Even the bungalows are joining the annual tradition of snowbirding—only they’re migrating straight back to Zillo.w

“The market is crashing before our eyes,” warns Joel Efosa, CEO of Fire Cash Buyer, who has already torn up two contracts and is waiting “for a 2008-style reset.” Detroit-based Redfin agent Desiree Bourgeois hears similar angst: “Buyers keep asking how tariffs and a possible recession will hit values—and whether rates shoot higher after they close.”

They have reason to wince. April’s average 30-year rate hovered at 6.73%, roughly double the cheap debt of 2022, and insurance premiums are spiking in disaster-prone states, forcing some lenders to

Total U.S. inventory is up 16.7% from a year ago, the loftiest level in five years, while new listings climbed 8.6%. In baseball terms, sellers just crowded the dugout as fans filed for the exits.

With choice comes leverage: Sellers tossed concessions into 44.4 percent of first-quarter deals—nearly a record—covering everything from mortgage-rate buydowns to months of HOA fees. “Buyers used to haggle for nickels on repairs; now they’re negotiating thousands to make the math work,” says Portland Redfin agent Chaley McVay.

Backup offers are suddenly back in style. “Two of my buyers snagged homes the minute the first contract fizzled,” notes Sacramento agent Alison Williams, who calls listing agents “to see if the winner is wobbling.”

The baseball analogy no one wants

Redfin now expects national prices to slip 1% by year-end as sellers compete and buyers bargain harder. “We know there’s room to negotiate right now,” says Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research. “The sooner you buy, the sooner you start to build equity.”

Still, with cancellations near pandemic highs, inventory rising, and nearly half of sellers writing checks at the closing table, this doesn’t feel like extra innings; it feels like the national pastime’s uneasy first inning, and the bullpen is already warming up.

SNIPPETS

1️⃣ Housing Hellscape: Los Angeles and San Francisco are dramatically underperforming in housing unit production, with Los Angeles approving just 17,200 residential units in 2024 (only 30% of its annual goal) and San Francisco permitting a mere 1,074 units. Rental prices are astronomical, with Los Angeles averaging $2,330 monthly and San Francisco reaching $3,280, significantly above national averages. Key obstacles include exorbitant construction costs, complex regulatory environments, lengthy approval processes (multifamily projects in LA take nearly four years), and local political resistance. Despite these challenges, the state mandates creating 2.5 million new housing units by 2031, suggesting potential opportunities for investors who can navigate the complex landscape. Successful developers are finding niches through strategies like affordable housing projects, office-to-residential conversions, and leveraging state streamlining laws, with cities like San Diego demonstrating more effective housing production approaches. (CoStar)

2️⃣ Rent Relief: Zillow data suggests a moderate cooling of rent growth, with owner's equivalent rent expected to rise 3.5% by year-end and an additional 2.4% in 2026. On-market rent growth for single-family homes is projected to slow to 2.8% in 2025, while multifamily rents are anticipated to increase by 1.6%. The forecast considers market rents, lease renewal strategies, and tenant mobility and indicates a gradual softening of shelter inflation. Investors should note the slight downward revision from previous estimates, suggesting a potential stabilization in the rental market, though shelter CPI components continue to rise above direct market rent trends. The key takeaway is a measured, somewhat tempered outlook for rental price appreciation in the near term. (Zillow)

3️⃣ Listings Galore: The U.S. housing market is experiencing a significant shift, with total home listings reaching an all-time high of $698 billion—a 20.3% increase from last year. The market is characterized by rising inventory, slowing demand, and increasing home prices, with 44% of listings now sitting for over 60 days. A staggering $331 billion worth of "stale inventory" represents nearly half of all listings, signaling a buyer's market. Experts like Chen Zhao from Redfin predict home prices could drop by 1% by year-end, potentially creating opportunities for strategic investors. Factors driving this trend include easing mortgage-rate lock-in effects, economic uncertainty, and buyers becoming more cautious due to high monthly housing costs. The typical home now takes 40 days to go under contract, compared to 24 days during the pandemic-era peak, suggesting a more measured and potentially negotiable market for savvy real estate professionals. (Redfin)

4️⃣ 🏠 Is Where The 💖 Is: In celebration of National Homeownership Month, Redfin’s latest surveys reveal that most American homeowners have a deep emotional connection to their homes, with nearly 70% saying their home reflects who they are and is the only place they can truly relax or sleep well. While saving from paychecks remains the most common method to fund a down payment, many also rely on second jobs, family gifts, or selling stocks. 74% of homeowners say they’d rather be at home than anywhere else. (Redfin)

5️⃣ Some Good News? U.S. foreclosure activity showed a slight monthly decline in May 2025, with 35,498 properties receiving foreclosure filings, down 1% from April but up 9% year-over-year, according to ATTOM’s latest report. While foreclosure starts dipped 4%, completed foreclosures rose 7%, signaling that lenders may catch up on backlogged cases rather than initiate new ones. Delaware, Florida, and Illinois had the highest state-level foreclosure rates, while Florida cities like Lakeland, Cape Coral, and Jacksonville led the nation among metro areas. Large metros like Riverside, Cleveland, and Chicago also saw elevated rates. The highest volume of foreclosure starts occurred in Texas, Florida, and California. (ATTOM)