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Everyone thinks we're in a recession

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Vibecession: Nearly three in five Americans believe the US is in a recession and blame the Biden administration. Despite GDP growth, a rising S&P 500, and low unemployment rates, 55% think the economy is shrinking, 56% believe we’re in a recession, and 49% mistakenly view unemployment as a 50-year high. The poll also highlights misconceptions about inflation, with 72% thinking it’s increasing despite a sharp decline from its post-Covid peak. This persistent economic pessimism, fueled by inflation concerns and rising interest rates, poses a significant challenge as election day approaches. (The Guardian)

Investor Rise: In Q1 2024, investors purchased 19% of homes, leaving 81% for primary residence buyers, according to Redfin. Institutional investors, owning at least 1,000 single-family homes, hold about 1% of the U.S. housing stock, per ResiClub and Parcl Labs. Moody's Analytics found a weak relationship between investor purchases and homeownership rates, suggesting minimal crowding out of traditional buyers. Investor activity, influenced by seasonality and lower mortgage rates early in 2024, often boosts rental supply or renovates uninhabitable properties, benefiting renters and the housing market, though the impact on buyers is complex and nuanced. (CNBC)

The New Gold: Over the past five years, home values have surged, with the median price per square foot increasing by 52.7% since 2019, outpacing the 23% rise in the consumer price inflation index. Notably, New York, Boston, and Nashville saw the highest gains at 84.7%, 72.9%, and 68.6%, respectively. Over the past year, the median home sale price rose slightly by 0.3% from $441,000 to $442,500, while the median price per square foot increased by 3.8% from May 2023. This rise in home values has led to a 32.5% year-over-year increase in the number of homes for sale, particularly in the $200,000 to $350,000 range, which saw a 46.6% inventory boost. (Inman)

If people believe we're in a recession and start behaving like it, guess what? We probably are. It's like convincing yourself you're sick, then calling in sick, and suddenly, everyone around you starts coughing. Congrats, you’ve created an epidemic of hypochondria. Let’s Go!

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