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👋👋 Good morning real estate watchers! Today, we are going to talk about...

1. Moore’s Law started as a handy way to describe computer progress. Now? It’s basically a prophecy. A nerdy little prophecy that ends with ChatGPT writing your eulogy and a drone selling your house to a hedge fund.

2. Small businesses are also freaking out, with uncertainty levels hitting 1970s disco-era highs. And unlike disco, this isn’t something we’re going to look back on fondly with sequins and irony.

3. Politicians suddenly discover zoning reform like it’s a hot new TikTok dance, with JD Vance awkwardly two-stepping his way through housing policy and pretending Austin didn’t just price out half its musicians.

Let’s go!

TOP STORY

SILICON FOUNDATIONS

Let’s talk about Moore’s Law. We know that sounds like the least sexy law since ‘no microwaving fish in the office kitchen,’ but bear with us.

Moore’s Law—named after Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel and a man who absolutely owned a graphing calculator in high school—says that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every two years.

In simpler terms, computers keep getting faster, cheaper, and more powerful at a terrifying, pants-wetting rate. It’s like tech’s version of puberty, except it never stops, and instead of growing armpit hair, it just becomes sentient and terrifying.

When OpenAI’s GPT-4 aced the bar exam, the LSAT, and the SAT math section, some joked that the next step was showing it a Zillow listing and asking whether the kitchen renovation was worth the $40,000 markup. But for real estate professionals, that quip might not be far from reality.

AI is no longer a sideshow act of Silicon Valley; it's the headline event—and the ripple effects are shaking the very foundations of the real estate sector. From accelerating construction timelines to recalibrating how properties are valued, marketed, and managed, AI is swiftly transitioning from novel to necessary.

And it’s all moving faster than ever.

Moore’s Law on Steroids

For decades, Moore’s Law has defined the pace of computing progress. From 2012 to 2022, the amount of compute used to train the largest AI models increased by a factor of 350,000, growing at a rate of 6x per year”.

AI is shattering that curve.

This means we’re no longer just seeing faster chips—we’re seeing smarter systems capable of understanding, reasoning, and acting in ways that rival (and often surpass) human performance in complex domains.

And real estate, an industry often slow to adopt change, is no longer immune.

From Blueprints to Bots

One of the most immediate impacts is unfolding on construction sites. Generative design, powered by AI, enables architects and developers to simulate thousands of layouts instantly, optimizing for cost, efficiency, and sustainability. Companies like ICON use robotics and AI to 3D-print homes, slashing build times and labor costs—critical advantages amid ongoing housing shortages.

A McKinsey report found that AI and automation could reduce construction costs by up to 20% and speed up project delivery by 30%. That’s not just good news for developers; it’s a potential salve for cities facing affordability crises.

Smarter Squares: Property Valuation and Transactions

Beyond bricks and mortar, AI is infiltrating the real estate transaction itself. Think AVMs (automated valuation models) on steroids—models that learn not just from comps and square footage but from buyer sentiment, regional migration patterns, and even social media signals. AI valuation models now account for over 70% of instant home pricing tools, using comparable sales, sentiment analysis, migration trends, and climate data.

That’s already happening. Zillow’s Zestimate, while not always beloved by agents, uses AI to evaluate over 100 million U.S. homes. Redfin, Opendoor, and other iBuyers are also heavily relying on machine learning to guide their purchasing and pricing decisions.

Tenant screening, lease negotiations, and underwriting are offloaded to intelligent algorithms. In commercial real estate, firms like JLL and CBRE embed AI into portfolio management, using predictive analytics to anticipate tenant churn and optimize rental income.

Meanwhile, I still can’t get our office printer to connect to Wi-Fi without screaming into a pillow like it owes me child support.

A New Kind of Location, Location, Location

The most profound shift may be in how we define "desirable." As remote work reshapes migration patterns, AI models can help developers forecast which suburban or tertiary markets are about to pop—based not on guesswork but on massive datasets spanning everything from utility demand to Twitter sentiment.

AI now powers models that can predict housing demand in secondary markets with 85% accuracy based on non-traditional data sources like search engine queries and social media activity. For investors and developers, this is incredible, even though it’s basically digital stalking:

Of course, the AI revolution isn’t without its pitfalls. As noted in a METR report, while large models are powerful, they’re still imperfect at complex, multi-step reasoning. Real estate deals often span months, involve multiple stakeholders, and hinge on unpredictable variables—areas where even advanced models can falter.

For developers and institutional investors, that’s a game-changer. Building in the wrong city used to mean millions lost. Now, it may mean asking the wrong model.

The Human Element

Despite the disruption, experts argue that AI will augment—not replace—the real estate professional. The winners will be those who learn to ride the wave, not resist it.

Yes, AI might not (yet) tell you whether that kitchen reno was a bad idea—but it may soon tell you whether your neighborhood is about to gentrify, your property is underpriced, and your future tenants are eyeing greener pastures.

The future of real estate, it turns out, isn’t just about location—it’s about logic. Algorithmic logic.

SNIPPETS

1️⃣ Business Bummer: The February NFIB small business survey reveals unprecedented levels of business uncertainty, reaching near-record highs since the survey's inception in the 1970s. This heightened uncertainty could signal potential market volatility and impact commercial and residential real estate investments. While the specifics of the survey aren't detailed in the provided text, such significant business apprehension typically suggests economic challenges ahead, which could translate to more cautious lending, potential property value fluctuations, and a more complex investment landscape. (NFIB)

2️⃣ Extend and Pretend: According to Colliers, commercial real estate lenders extended a record $384B in loans into 2025—up 42% from last year—as nearly half of 2025’s $957B in maturing debt was deferred from previous years. This ongoing “extend-and-pretend” trend reflects the continued difficulty in repaying loans amid high interest rates, especially in the office and multifamily sectors. While some asset classes show signs of recovery, many owners remain unable to refinance, and foreclosures are rising. With $663B more debt maturing in 2026, the delays will likely continue. (Bisnow)

3️⃣ Fannie & Freddie: Renewed investor optimism, fueled by recent comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent and a Wall Street Journal report, suggests the Trump administration is exploring options for privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, potentially through a US sovereign wealth fund, leading to a surge in the companies' stocks as investors anticipate a return to private control after previous efforts stalled during Trump's first term. (Yahoo! News)

4️⃣ Yikes: American households face increasing difficulty managing unexpected financial burdens. The probability of households being able to cover a $2,000 emergency expense within the next month has plummeted to its lowest level since the survey began in the fourth quarter of 2015. This situation is further exacerbated by the significant increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is now 35% higher than it was in 2015, eroding households' purchasing power and making it even harder to cope with unforeseen financial demands. This indicates a growing vulnerability within the American population to economic shocks and unexpected costs. (Apollo)

5️⃣ Pocket Listings Unzipped: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has introduced a new companion policy to its Clear Cooperation Policy called Multiple Listing Options for Sellers, offering homeowners greater flexibility in how they market properties. The policy introduces “delayed marketing exempt listings” alongside existing “office exclusive exempt listings,” allowing sellers to strategically time their listing’s public debut while ensuring agents' MLS access. While these changes aim to support fair housing and maintain market transparency, sellers must sign disclosure agreements. They can’t fully opt out of sharing with the MLS once public marketing begins. (Realtor.com)