Oil hit $118 a barrel. Mortgage rates jumped 50 basis points in a month. The IMF says we're one bad quarter from a global recession. And somewhere in Malaysia, Durex is raising prices 30% because the war is now a prophylactic supply chain issue. This is 2026.

The Briefcase Team | April 22, 2026

Let's start with the number every real estate person should tattoo on their forehead: $118 a barrel.

That's where Brent crude peaked on March 9, 2026, nine days after the U.S.-Israel coalition launched coordinated strikes on Iran and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Twenty percent of global seaborne oil moves through that strait. Twenty percent of global LNG. A significant chunk of the global food supply, including 80% of the Gulf region's calories. The International Energy Agency called it the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." They weren't being dramatic. They were being accurate.

And just like that, the housing recovery America had been tiptoeing toward got punched in the face.

On February 26, 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.98%. First time under 6% since September 2022. Housing Twitter lost its mind. Buyers called their agents. Sellers unfroze. The spring buying season looked like it might actually, finally, be a spring buying season.

That optimism lasted exactly two days.

February 28: the U.S. and Israel hit Iran. Iran hit back. Oil started its climb. By March 12, rates were at 6.11%. By April 2, they hit 6.46% - the highest in seven months. The sub-6% window was open for approximately 48 hours, which in housing-market terms is not a window. It's a keyhole.

Jeff DerGurahian, chief economist at loanDepot, put it plainly: without the war, the 10-year Treasury would be well below 4% and mortgage rates would be in the high fives. Instead, everyone's paying roughly $100 more per month on a median-priced home. That is a war tax. Nobody voted for it. Everyone's paying it.

Oil rises. Gas rises ($4.08 per gallon, up 37% since February). Everything shipped costs more. Inflation reignites. The Fed pauses. Bond investors demand higher yields. The 10-year Treasury moves from 3.96% on February 27 to 4.21% on March 11. Mortgage rates follow.

That's it. An Iranian missile hits a tanker and six weeks later a first-time buyer in Peoria can't afford the house they were pre-approved for.

While everyone was watching oil, the IMF dropped its April 2026 World Economic Outlook and cut global GDP growth three ways:

That bottom number, 2.0%, is what economists politely call "the edge of a recession." The Dallas Fed's model estimates a two-quarter Strait closure pushes WTI to $115 per barrel and keeps GDP growth negative through year-end. Three quarters pushes oil to $132 and keeps growth negative well into 2027.

We're currently somewhere between scenario one and scenario two. The Strait was declared "completely open" on April 17. Brent dropped 10% to around $89. But shipping volumes are still below pre-war levels, and Ed Morse told Fortune it'll take seven weeks for pre-war oil to reach Asia-Pacific markets. The ceasefire is good news. The plumbing takes time.

Meet Karex Bhd, the world's largest condom producer. They make 5 billion condoms a year and supply Durex, Trojan, the NHS, and most of the UN's global aid programs. On Tuesday, Karex CEO Goh Miah Kiat told Reuters that condom prices are rising 20% to 30%, possibly more.

The reason? The Iran war. Synthetic rubber, nitrile, aluminum foil, silicone oil, packaging - all petrochemical-adjacent, all squeezed by the same supply chain driving up your mortgage rate. Shipping times from Malaysia to the U.S. have doubled from one month to two. Demand is up 30% this year, partly because USAID cuts depleted global stockpiles.

So the Iran war is now officially impacting your mortgage rate, your gas tank, your grocery bill, and your condoms. This is what we mean when we say "supply chain shock." It's not a housing problem or an energy problem or a prophylactic problem. It's a single disruption rippling through everything priced in oil. Housing is just the slowest and most expensive place it shows up.

In nine months, expect a very small, very expensive baby boom.

Here's the paradox the Iran war created. All the things supposed to make 2026 the "Great Housing Reset" - moderating prices, building inventory, softening demand - are still happening. Prices are flat or falling in 34 of the 50 largest metros. Inventory is building. Buyers have real negotiating leverage for the first time since 2019.

But rates are up, and that extra $100 a month on a median home cancels out a lot of the price relief. VeroFORECAST now sees national home price growth of just 1.3% for the year, half its previous estimate. Cape Coral is expected to drop 2.7%. Naples, 1.7%. Most of the Sun Belt is flashing red.

Meanwhile, cash buyers and tech-industry wealth are holding up markets like San Jose. Because when real estate becomes a hedge against currency volatility and inflation, the people with liquid dollars win. Which is a perfect summary of the entire Iran economy: the people who already own things are fine. Everyone else pays more for the privilege of not owning things yet.

The Iran war started on February 28, and within ten days the U.S. housing market went from breaking below 6% mortgages for the first time in three years to breaking above 6.5% and staring down the possibility of 7%. The IMF cut global growth. Oil hit $118. Gas hit $4. Condoms, for reasons we didn't expect to type this morning, are about to cost 30% more. The Strait of Hormuz reopened last Friday, which is good news, but the supply chain damage takes seven weeks to unwind and the inflation takes quarters.

If the ceasefire holds, rates could slide back into the 5.80s by summer and the "Great Housing Reset" resumes on schedule. If it doesn't, we are looking at a recession-adjacent housing year, with transaction volumes stuck, builders cutting prices, and first-time buyers who finally had a shot getting pushed back to renting by a war happening 7,000 miles away. The Iran conflict isn't a housing story. It's every story, and housing is just where the biggest numbers live.