👋👋 Good morning real estate watchers! Today, we are going to talk about how Austin, Texas, now has 128% more sellers than buyers. 128%! That's not a housing market, that's a going-out-of-business sale at a mattress store that's been 'closing' for six years. Austin spent the pandemic being absolutely insufferable—'Oh, we're the new tech hub, oh, everyone's moving here, oh, have you tried our breakfast tacos?'—and now they're sitting on more unsold inventory than a Blockbuster Video in 2009.

But first, here’s what we’ve been paying attention to this week…

1️⃣ Builders Tap the Brakes: Single-family building permits cooled in October as builders stayed cautious amid affordability and financing pressures, while multifamily permits held up relatively well. Through the first 10 months of 2025, single-family permits fell 7.0% year over year (787,122 vs. 846,446) while multifamily permits rose 5.7% (426,352), with the Midwest the lone region up for single-family and the Northeast slipping sharply on multifamily, driven by a big NYC-area drop. (NAHB)

2️⃣ Wall Street, Back Off: President Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to stop approving, insuring, guaranteeing, securitizing, or otherwise facilitating large institutional investors buying single-family homes that an owner-occupant could purchase. It also calls for stricter scrutiny of big investor acquisitions (including antitrust review) and pushes “first-look” style priority for regular buyers in some federally touched sales. (NMN)

3️⃣ Contract Signings Faceplant: Pending home sales fell 9.3% in December (vs. forecasts for a small gain), dropping in every U.S. region and ending the year 3% below December 2024. With inventory at just 1.18 million homes (down 9% from November and the lowest level of 2025), buyers stayed cautious despite mortgage rates hovering around the mid-6% range. (CNBC)

4️⃣ Rates on a Yo-Yo: Mortgage rates swung after markets reacted to plans for $200B in added MBS buying (rates down) and then to geopolitical tensions that pushed bond yields up (rates back up), but the 30-year fixed still sits near 2025 lows overall. Zillow expects a gradual drift toward ~6% by the end of 2026, which could slowly improve affordability if home-price growth stays modest and incomes keep catching up. (Zillow)

5️⃣ Landlords: Public Enemy #1: A new Clever Offers survey finds 73% of Americans blame real estate investors for the lack of affordable housing, with distrust rising toward cash buyers and iBuyers as well. The timing is spicy: it landed right as Trump leaned into the “we won’t become a nation of renters” message and talked up restrictions on big institutional buyers. (HW)

TOP STORY

A homeowner in Dallas just sold his house for 10% less than he paid for it.

He bought at the pandemic peak, when bidding wars felt like gladiator combat and waiving inspections was considered "competitive." Now he's signing closing documents with the enthusiasm of someone returning a Christmas sweater in February. The kicker? His Redfin agent says he's one of the realistic ones.

"A lot of sellers are in denial and won't budge on price," says Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Dallas. "If you don't price your home reasonably, it will sit on the market."

Welcome to 2026, where the housing market has officially flipped, and the people who spent three years acting like they were selling beachfront property in Monaco are suddenly discovering what "negotiation" means.

In December, there were 47.1% more home sellers than buyers actively in the U.S. market. That's not a typo. That's 631,535 more people trying to sell homes than people trying to buy them; the most significant gap since Redfin started tracking this data in 2013.

To put that in perspective: a year ago, the gap was 25 percentage points smaller. A month ago, it was 7 percentage points smaller, the biggest monthly swing since September 2022.

But here's where it gets interesting.

The number of buyers in the market dropped to 1.34 million in December—an all-time low. Meanwhile, sellers retreated too, but not nearly as fast. The result? A market where sellers are competing for a shrinking pool of buyers, like seagulls fighting over a single French fry.

By Redfin's definition, any market with more than 10% excess sellers qualifies as a "buyer's market." The U.S. has been in that territory since May 2024. We're not just in a buyer's market anymore—we're in the buyer's market.

Remember when Austin, Texas, was the hottest real estate market in America? When tech workers were moving there faster than breakfast tacos could be consumed? When did "California equity" become a term that made local homeowners weep?

Austin now has 128% more sellers than buyers, the most lopsided market among the 50 largest U.S. metros. Fort Lauderdale follows at 125%, Nashville at 111%, and Miami and San Antonio tied at 103%.

The same Sun Belt markets where builders couldn't build homes fast enough to satisfy demand are now drowning in inventory. Florida, in particular, is dealing with a triple threat: intensifying hurricanes, insurance premiums that make your eyes water, and HOA fees that seem designed by someone who hates joy.

Dallas, where that unlucky seller is taking his 10% haircut, saw home prices drop 7.6% year over year in December. That's the steepest decline among major metros. Nationally, prices rose just 0.1%, the weakest growth since June 2023.

Not every market is a buyer's paradise. Nassau County, New York, had 33.4% fewer sellers than buyers in December, making it the strongest seller's market in the country. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, Newark, and Milwaukee also remain firmly in seller territory.

The pattern is almost comically predictable: the Northeast and Midwest, which have historically issued the fewest building permits, are the places where buyers still have to compete. The South and West, which spent the pandemic years building as if preparing for a population explosion, are now sitting on inventory like it's unsold Halloween candy in November.

Prices tell the story. In seller's markets, values climbed 4.9% year over year. Buyer's markets? Just 0.6%.

Here's what nobody wants to say out loud: this is only a buyer's market for people who can actually afford to buy.

High prices haven't disappeared, they've just stopped accelerating. Mortgage rates, while ticking down slightly in recent days, remain punishing enough to keep many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Economic uncertainty and layoffs have further trimmed the buyer pool.

So while sellers are finally learning that their home isn't worth what Zillow's algorithm told them during the 2021 fever dream, buyers aren't exactly flooding in to take advantage. They're cautious, cash-strapped, and frankly exhausted from years of being told they should feel grateful for the opportunity to overpay.

The result is a standoff. Sellers who won't budge are watching their listings grow stale. Buyers who can afford to purchase are demanding concessions, repairs, and prices that actually reflect reality.

And that Dallas seller taking the 10% loss? He's not a cautionary tale. He's a pioneer.

If you're a buyer with financing locked and loaded, this is your moment. You have options, leverage, and time; three things that felt like fairy tales 18 months ago.

If you're a seller, especially in the Sun Belt, it's time for a gut check. The market has shifted. Denial isn't a pricing strategy. And if you're an agent? Your job just got more complex and more interesting. The clients who need the most help are the ones who still think it's 2021.

The housing market spent years telling buyers to sit down and be grateful. Now it's the sellers' turn to learn some humility.

Turns out, "no" is a word that works in both directions.