👋👋 Good morning real estate watchers! Today, we are going to discuss how 85,000 sellers removed their homes from the market in September. That’s the biggest mass retreat since every politician on Earth suddenly decided they’ve always supported renewable energy. It’s like homeowners collectively said, ‘Nope! Housing market’s weird, I’m out,’ and just Irish-goodbye’d the entire economy.

But first, here’s what we’ve been paying attention to this week…

1️⃣ Lumbergeddon Lite: Building material costs jumped at their fastest pace in nearly three years as energy prices surged and pushed construction inputs higher. September’s Producer Price Index shows residential builders facing steadily rising material and service costs…Just in time for the housing market to need anything but more inflation, literally. (NAHB)

2️⃣ Rate Relief? Mortgage rates dipped to 6.23% as markets increasingly bet on a December Fed rate cut, fueled by mixed economic data and dovish signals from key policymakers. With an 80% chance of another cut on the table, year-end buyers may get a late-season boost. (Realtor.com)

3️⃣ Bidding Frenzy: Multifamily housing dominated commercial real estate competition in October as JLL’s Bid Intensity Index logged one of its strongest monthly gains of the year, fueled by Fed rate cuts and deep housing shortages. Investor confidence is returning across sectors (especially multifamily and industrial) while retail saw softer competition simply because buyers finally had options for a change. (CNBC)

4️⃣ Tiny Thaw: Existing home sales ticked up 1.2% in October (just enough to beat last year’s pace) as buyers jumped on lower mortgage rates and nudged activity slightly higher despite flat inventory. Prices rose 2.1% year over year, but real momentum will likely hinge on deeper rate cuts or a stronger labor market to fully shake the market out of its slump. (Zillow)

5️⃣ Rich Get Richer: Luxury home prices surged 5.5% in October (triple the pace of non-luxury homes) as wealthy buyers, buoyed by cash and stock-market gains, kept demand alive at the top end of the market. Despite sales still hovering near decade-low October levels, high-end buyers remain far less sensitive to mortgage rates, pushing luxury prices to a record $1.28 million median. (Redfin)

TOP STORY

On a crisp morning in Pittsburgh, where steel mills once set the city’s rhythm, real estate agent Dani R. stood in front of a three-bedroom brick home, reassessing the “Reduced Price” banner she’d pinned up just three weeks earlier. Then came the call from the seller: “Take it down…off the market. We’ll try again in the spring.”

She sighed, grabbed her stepladder, and started unhooking the sign. “Another one going into hibernation,” she muttered. Welcome to America’s housing deep freeze. Not the seasonal slowdown we expect every fall, but something colder, stranger, and much more consequential.

In September, nearly 85,000 U.S. homeowners yanked their listings, a 28% jump from a year earlier and the highest for the month in eight years, according to Redfin. The motivation isn’t subtle: sellers don’t like losing money, or even the faint whiff of it.

70% of homes listed in September sat on the market for 60+ days, a recipe for panic in a market conditioned for bidding wars. Sixty days! In real estate time, that’s basically forever. That’s like leaving a carton of milk in the fridge until it starts introducing itself as your new roommate. If that isn’t cold enough; 15% of delisted homes were at risk of selling at a loss, the highest share in five years.

“When tens of thousands of homeowners pull their homes off the market rather than accept a low offer, it effectively reduces the supply of homes that are actually available,” said Asad Khan, senior economist at Redfin. “That keeps sale prices elevated.”

In other words, supply is up on paper, but down in reality. So the housing market now works the same way my gym membership does. Technically, I have access…but let’s be honest, no one’s actually using it.

Buyers brave enough to shop right now are seeing some of the deepest discounts in years. Zillow reports that the typical listing in October underwent $25,000 in cumulative price cuts, a record matched only once before.

Price cuts are starting to stack up like clearance stickers at a failing department store. Typical individual cuts still hover around $10,000, but homes that linger often receive several cuts, adding up to the $25,000 figure.

Here are the markets showing the biggest absolute markdowns:

Meanwhile, markets with lower home values are seeing larger relative discounts:

If you’re patient and flexible, this fall is the best market since 2022 to find a deal. But most buyers? They’re frozen too, staring down rates, headlines, and an economy they’re not sure they trust.

Home prices aren’t plummeting. They’re not rising, either. They’re doing something more unsettling: slipping just enough to spook sellers, not enough to lure buyers.

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index:

The result? A standoff where both sides glare at each other through frosted windows, waiting for someone to blink.

Even pending home sales (usually a bellwether) are stuck:

The tiny uptick occurred after a brief dip in mortgage rates, which reversed again in November. Hope springs eternal; rates do not.

Realtor.com says inventory appears 15% higher than last year, but that number is melting fast. With sellers delisting at record rates and winter approaching, the number of available homes will shrink, much like the leftovers from a Thanksgiving turkey.

And while 1 in 5 delisted homes eventually come back, brokers expect most sellers to wait until spring, when the market thaws and buyer psychology resets.

Until then? We’re staring down a national housing deep freeze:

The U.S. housing market hasn’t crashed. It hasn’t corrected. It hasn’t recovered. It’s just… gone dormant.

A bear in its den, waiting for the sun.

If the last five years were defined by bidding wars, frenzy, and FOMO, the next few months may be represented by something much quieter: the sound of nothing happening. For now, homeowners like Dani’s client in Pittsburgh will keep their For Sale signs in storage. Winter has arrived early. And this time, the housing market brought a parka.