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👋👋 Good morning real estate watchers! Today, we are going to talk about...

1. Apparently if your condo doesn’t have the right insurance or is a bit... structurally unstable, Fannie Mae will quietly put you on a naughty list. Which raises the question: how the hell is Fannie Mae the mean girl from high school now? 'Oh, we’re not saying you're poor, but... you can’t sit with us.'

2. How long-term Treasury bonds just faceplanted like a drunk uncle at a wedding. 

3. How Rocket Companies is in full Monopoly mode, buying up mortgage companies like they’re playing with cheat codes. They now control Redfin, Mr. Cooper, and most of your homebuying process—because who doesn’t want their mortgage journey to feel like one seamless, data-harvesting corporate hug?

Let’s go!

TOP STORY

CONDO BLACKLIST

In sunny Ventura County, California, real estate agent Paul Gangi was wrapping up the sale of a modest condo in the 440-unit Shadow Ridge complex when his phone rang. The buyer’s lender had discovered something chilling: the property had been “blacklisted.”

The deal collapsed. No conventional mortgage. No fallback plan. Just another unsellable condo—one of thousands now trapped in Fannie Mae’s increasingly controversial eligibility crackdown.

Welcome to the mortgage market’s best-kept secret.

Fannie Mae’s “secret mortgage blacklist”—an unofficial term coined by panicked homeowners and frustrated brokers—is upending condo markets across the U.S., particularly in Florida, California, Colorado, and other high-insurance or high-risk zones. As of March 2025, 5,175 condo buildings nationwide had been deemed ineligible for Fannie-backed loans.

Florida leads the pack with 1,400 blacklisted buildings, followed by California and Colorado. These are not niche properties—many are large, middle-income complexes that now find themselves frozen out of America's largest source of home financing.

“It's the perfect financial storm for condominiums,” said Jake Marcus, an attorney with Allcock & Marcus. “There is just a lot happening in Florida with all the new requirements.”

Roots: Surfside, Insurance, and Skyrocketing Costs

The blacklist grew rapidly in the wake of the 2021 Surfside condo collapse, where 98 people lost their lives due to structural failures exacerbated by deferred maintenance.

After the collapse, Fannie and Freddie got all serious — which, fair — but now they’ve blacklisted thousands of properties like a housing McCarthyism.

Fannie Mae: ‘Are you now, or have you ever been, associated with an underfunded HOA?’ ‘No, sir!’ ‘LIAR! DENIED.’

Since then, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—the mortgage finance twins that collectively back around 70% of U.S. home loans—have tightened insurance and reserve requirements for condos.

Because if there’s one thing every homeowner is known for, it’s loving insurance paperwork and setting aside emergency reserves instead of spending $80k on new lobby plants and a fountain shaped like a dolphin doing a keg stand.

At Meadow Hills Town Homes in Aurora, Colorado, HOA President Randy Garlington saw insurance premiums triple last year, forcing monthly dues up by 60%. To avoid a repeat hike, the board considered increasing the insurance deductible—only to realize that doing so could land them on Fannie Mae’s blacklist.

“You start to wonder if we’re being punished for trying to manage risk,” Garlington said.

Meanwhile, some associations report insurance quotes that are flat-out unworkable. Shadow Ridge was quoted $2.6 million annually—10 times its current premium—for a policy that meets Fannie’s guidelines.

The alternative? A pooled policy that got them blacklisted.

The Dreaded Domino Effect

When a condo is blacklisted, buyers using conventional loans—those with lower rates and down payments—are turned away. That pushes sales toward cash buyers or expensive non-conforming loans, shrinking the buyer pool and depressing property values.

“You have only one job here: survive,” joked one broker, echoing a sentiment often heard on the crypto side of Twitter but increasingly relevant in real estate.

In Rossmoor, a retirement community in California, nearly 6,700 homes were blacklisted in January 2024, causing property values to plummet—at least temporarily. “We were in a panic — no one was lending,” said real estate agent Larry Spiteri.

Enter the Trump Administration: Privatization Looms

Complicating things further is the Trump administration’s renewed push to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, removing the federal government’s safety net.

William Pulte, the new head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), has restructured the boards and appointed himself chairman of both GSEs—a move many see setting the stage for privatization.

What does that mean for borrowers and investors?

“It would mean that mortgage rates would increase — definitely,” Laurie Goodman of the Urban Institute told The New York Times.

Investors might cheer the removal of federal oversight. However, without the government guarantee, the mortgage risk premium would likely rise temporarily until markets find a new equilibrium.

Phil Crescenzo Jr. of Nation One Mortgage summed it up well: “That’s going to cause an immediate reaction. But with better economic conditions, you could see rates come down — not immediately, though.”

The Paradox of Protection

Fannie Mae argues that its requirements are safety and financial stability. “The argument of trying to loosen things up so that people can buy is unfortunately very shortsighted,” said former Freddie Mac exec Donna Corley.

Fair enough. But as more buildings are blacklisted due to unaffordable insurance or aging infrastructure, one wonders if we’re safeguarding future homebuyers by freezing out current ones.

Real estate lawyer Tyler Burding put it bluntly: “There are many condos that are rotting from within…The owners can’t afford to pay, and banks won’t lend it.”

And buyers don’t want to buy it. According to Redfin, 68% of condos sold below the list price in February—the highest share seen in five years.

So here we are—with growing swaths of America’s housing stock suddenly unsellable and the institutions designed to ensure access to homeownership playing gatekeeper behind closed doors.

For now, the blacklist remains largely hidden from public view. But its consequences are increasingly in plain sight.

SNIPPETS

1️⃣ Treasury Tumble: Long-term Treasury bonds experienced their most substantial selloff in nearly two years, coinciding with a stabilization of stock markets. The S&P 500 index registered a modest 0.2% loss following a dramatic 10% decline in the previous two trading sessions. This volatility signals potential shifts in borrowing costs and investment strategies, as Treasury bond performance often influences mortgage rates and overall real estate market dynamics. The current market conditions suggest a period of uncertainty, with investors carefully monitoring interest rate trends and their potential impact on property valuations and investment opportunities. (Barron’s)

2️⃣ Rocket's Real Estate Rampage: Rocket Companies is transforming the fragmented $2 trillion housing market by acquiring Mr. Cooper for $9.4 billion and Redfin for $1.75 billion, creating an end-to-end real estate platform that controls the entire homebuying journey. By integrating consumer discovery (Redfin's 50 million monthly active users), high-margin financing (Rocket Mortgage), and long-term loan servicing (Mr. Cooper's $1 trillion in mortgage servicing rights), Rocket is positioning itself to dramatically lower customer acquisition costs and increase lifetime value. This signals a critical industry shift where platform consolidation, data ownership, and seamless transaction integration will become increasingly important, potentially disrupting traditional brokerages, regional banks, and fintech startups. (CRETI)

3️⃣ Rate Roulette: The recent comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a potentially complex interest rate environment in 2025. Despite market expectations of rate cuts (now at a 60% probability for May), Powell's language suggests a more nuanced approach to monetary policy. The Fed is closely watching both inflation and employment metrics, with a particular focus on longer-term inflation expectations. Economists like Tim Duy note that Powell has subtly removed the previous language that explicitly ruled out rate hikes, indicating the central bank wants maximum flexibility. The key takeaway for real estate professionals is to prepare for potential volatility: while rate cuts are anticipated, the Fed remains cautious and may adjust based on core PCE inflation data, which could impact borrowing costs, mortgage rates, and investment strategies. (Marketwatch)

4️⃣ Housing Hunger Games: A staggering 70% of U.S. households (94 million) cannot afford a $400,000 home, which is close to the estimated median new home price. The housing affordability pyramid shows that only 52.87 million households can afford homes under $200,000, requiring a minimum income of $61,487 at a 6.5% mortgage rate, and subsequent price ranges see progressively fewer potential buyers. Even more concerning is the supply-demand mismatch: while approximately 53 million households can afford homes under $200,000, only 22 million owner-occupied homes exist in that price range. (NAHB)

5️⃣ Rent Shenanigans: A developing legal battle between Berkeley and RealPage is unfolding, which could have significant implications for rental pricing strategies. The controversy centers around RealPage's algorithm that helps landlords optimize rental prices, which the Department of Justice claims amounts to potential price-fixing. With RealPage controlling 80% of commercial revenue management software, the company is being accused of enabling rent increases beyond market norms. In one notable example, RealPage suggested a landlord could increase rent by 7% by slightly reducing occupancy from 97% to 95%. The lawsuit challenges the software's methodology, arguing it reduces healthy market competition. Berkeley has already banned the algorithm, with the ordinance set to take effect on April 24th, and RealPage is seeking a temporary restraining order. This case could potentially reshape how rental pricing technologies are regulated. (Gizmodo)

6️⃣ Warehouse Wonderland: Amazon's potential $15 billion warehouse expansion plan signals a significant logistics and industrial real estate opportunity. Despite a recent construction slowdown and softening industrial real estate conditions—with vacancy rates climbing past 7% for the first time since 2014—Amazon is exploring nearly 80 new logistics facilities across US cities and rural areas. The company seeks capital partners and is willing to lease facilities for 15-25 years, with projects ranging from delivery hubs to multi-story fulfillment centers. This strategic move suggests Amazon is repositioning after its pandemic-era property acquisition spree, which previously involved direct land and property purchases. While global market uncertainties like recent tariff announcements could impact plans, the proposal indicates Amazon's continued commitment to optimizing its logistics infrastructure, potentially presenting attractive investment opportunities for those tracking industrial real estate trends. (Bloomberg)